Ever since I last updated this blog (far too long ago), the world of politics has been bombarded with developments. Donald Trump went 'south of the border' to meet with the Mexican president, Hillary Clinton passed out trying to get into a van, and the polls have gotten unbearably tight. With the first presidential debate on Monday, I thought it would be good to give some analysis on the current state of the race, mainly in terms of the Electoral College.
When we hear general election polls from various outlets, we can become confused by the volatility of the numbers. For example, on Thursday, NBC News, partnered with Wall Street Journal, produced a poll that had Clinton up 6 points nationally, a much larger lead for Hillary than most recent polls have indicated. A few hours after that poll was released, however, Reuters, partnered with Ipsos, put out a poll showing Trump with the lead by 2 points.
The problem, however, is with the notion that broad, nationwide general election polls truly matter. Although nationwide presidential polls can give a snapshot of the overall picture in a race, they do not give an accurate assessment of who will actually win.
That is where polls of individual states become so critical when evaluating the state of a presidential race. I always hearken back to the fact that our Founding Fathers instituted the Electoral College system, and as you hopefully know, the candidate that reaches 270 electoral votes will be the victor.
In this election, we must admit that Donald Trump's path to 270 is very narrow. However, his lane to the White House is visible, and I will now proceed to outline how a Trump win is possible. First, the following states are those that are locks for either Trump or Clinton.
Safe States
Hillary's Locks: Hawaii (4), Washington (12), Oregon (7), California (55), Minnesota (10), Illinois (20), Washington D.C. (3), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), New Jersey (14), Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), Massachusetts (11), Vermont (3), One Of Maine's Four
In safe states, Trump sweeps the South, as expected. The Midwest looks like solid Trump territory as well, as former bellwether state Missouri has turned red over the past decade.
For Democrats, the Pacific Coast will be very blue as usual. As will the liberal bastion of the Northeast. Hillary can also stake claim in Minnesota and Illinois easily.
You may be confused by the odd allocations of delegates from Nebraska and Maine. Nebraska and Maine dole out their electoral votes differently than the rest of the nation. Instead of the "all-or-none" way that most states use, Nebraska and Maine give two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner, and then one each to the popular vote winner in each congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in Nebraska) in their state. In the Cornhusker State, Trump will easily grab the popular vote and 2 of the 3 congressional districts. Over in the Pine Tree State, Clinton should garner one electoral vote from a congressional district for sure. As we will see later, the remaining electoral votes, 1 from Nebraska and 3 from Maine, could be key in the outcome of the race.
So, from the beginning, we can lock up 193 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 157 for Donald Trump. Now, things start getting fuzzy. Let's look at states that are likely in one candidate's corner, but could switch to the other side depending on who grabs momentum going into the final full month of campaigning.
Likely States
Likely Trump: Utah (6), Iowa (6), One Of Nebraska's Five, One Of Maine's Four
Likely Clinton: New Mexico (5)
There have been some odd local polls coming out of Utah that have shown the likes of Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson near the lead. While I do believe that both McMullin and Johnson will have their best performance in the nation in this state, I think they're still about 8 to 10 points off the lead. If Clinton wins, it would have nothing to do with her popularity in Utah, which is very low. It would solely stem from a conservative vote that would split between Trump, McMullin, and Johnson. Until more reliable data shows otherwise, Trump is likely to take Utah.
Iowa is the first state that we come across that could see severe swings over the next month. According to the majority of polls over the past month, Trump has built a lead near 6 points. It has been consistently in that range, and that's why we can put the Hawkeye State in the likely corner for The Donald. However, this is a state that could swing rapidly if Trump shoots himself in the foot often during the debates and throughout October.
Many were shocked when Barack Obama took Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in 2008. Although there is a strong liberal faction in this area, Trump fever is real in Nebraska, so we'll say it's likely Trump.
Although one electoral vote seems small, it could be critical with as tight as this election may be. That's why Donald Trump is thrilled with his polling performance in Maine's 2nd congressional district, opening up an 11 point lead according to the latest poll.
There's only one reason why I put New Mexico in the Likely section instead of the Safe section for Clinton. Reuters recently came out with a poll showing Trump with a very small lead, mainly due to former NM Gov. Gary Johnson stealing some of Hillary Clinton's support. This has been the only poll showing Trump leading, making it look like a fluke. However, New Mexico does have a conservative faction that has given us some surprises over the years, like when George W. Bush won in 2004. But for now, this is probably in Clinton's corner.
Adding the Safe States to the Likely States, Clinton would have 197 electoral votes to Trump's 171. We're getting closer to the nitty-gritty. Let's look at the states that lean slightly to one candidate's corner.
The Leaners
Learning Clinton: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Two Of Maine's Four
This is where things get wild. It would be best to start in the Wild, Wild West with Nevada. As a Politico headline eloquently put it this week, Nevada is the state that is giving the Democrats the most heartburn this season. Trump's message seems to have made a resonating dent in liberals' hold on the Silver State. A Fox News poll this week had Trump up 4 points. Trump's recent surge here may correlate with his small but noticeable uptick in Hispanic support.
While Nevada's closeness has given Democrats fits, Arizona's tight polls have given the left reason for joy. A usually red state, Arizona's Latino population has revolted against Trump. The only truly reliable recent poll was an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll showing Trump up a measly point, well within the margin of error. While Trump should pull this out, this one may go either way, and if Clinton wins here, Trump's dreams of the White House will evaporate in the desert sun.
Georgia has been showing more liberal tendencies recently, and Democrats are hoping that a large African-American turnout will push Clinton to a massive upset. Polling shows Trump up anywhere from 3 points to 6. If Clinton is having a big night nationwide, Georgia could very well be in play, but it would take a lot of momentum.
North Carolina is a state on fire right now. With the protests/riots in Charlotte combined with the bathroom law controversy (putting Gov. Pat McCrory's job in jeopardy), nobody really knows what might happen here. Like in Georgia, Democrats are urging the African-American community to vote en masse. An Obama state in 2008 but a Romney state in 2012, NC likely has a Trump tilt, but like Georgia, if Clinton is having a big night, the Tar Heel State could fall to the Democrats.
Ohio, known as the ultimate bellwether state since it has essentially been the main presidential election decider in the majority of U.S. political history, looks more and more like Trump country, at least according to recent polling. Since Ohio is full of cities looking for a manufacturing revitalization, Trump's harping on trade has affected Buckeye State voters. It is a state that is very evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, but the white working-class voters may push Trump over the top here.
Wisconsin and Michigan both have similar makeups, and there has been very limited polling in these states. A few local polls have shown Clinton up anywhere between 2 to 7 points in the Badger State, while Michigan may give Clinton an even larger lead. It is not an insurmountable deficit by any means for Trump. He would need to get a boost from the debates and keep pushing his economic message.
If you split Pennsylvania in half, you would see two very dissimilar areas. The rural and industrial parts of Western Pennsylvania give a picture of voters that are fed up with the government and want Trump to be elected to shake things up. On the other hand, the uber-liberal Philadelphia region shows many residents that would rather die than vote for Trump. It simply depends on which side shows up in larger numbers. Polls in the past month have shown a small shift in Clinton's direction, but this will depend on turnout.
Virginia has shown a left turn in the past few cycles. Combining the ultra-blue fortress in Northern Virginia and having Sen. Tim Kaine on the ticket for Democrats, Virginia has felt like Clinton territory all year. But polling has underestimated the conservative coal and farming country in the southern part of the state recently. In 2012, Ed Gillespie performed far better than the polling average in his fight against Sen. Mark Warner. Had the polls not been so far off, the RNC would have spent more money on Gillespie, potentially pushing him to the victory. Trump has continually been spending time in the state, and for good reason.
New Hampshire and Maine have that famous independent streak, and Donald Trump has talked extensively about how he would work to fix the raging drug problem there. Polls this month have shown a rapid tightening up here, with Clinton clinging to slight leads.
Adding the Safe States, the Likely States, and the Leaning States together, Hillary Clinton would have 263 electoral votes, while Trump would hold only 237. But we are missing two critical states that could very well decide the election.
The Tossups
As usual, Florida is as hotly contested as one could possibly imagine. According to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Trump is ahead by about one-tenth of a percent. I'm not saying we're about to see Bush vs Gore Part 2 in the Sunshine State, but expect the unexpected here.
Colorado has unexpectedly come right into play during September. An Emerson poll shocked everyone, showing Trump with a 4 point advantage. More proof that things are tight emerged when a Quinnipiac poll had Trump and Clinton knotted up in a tie this week. Gary Johnson has sucked some support from Hillary Clinton, turning this into a pickup opportunity for the Trumpster.
Conclusion
The presidency would hang in the balance by the way the two tossup states would go. In order to come out over 270, Trump would have to squeak out victories in both, ending up at 275 electoral votes, compared to Clinton's 263 (making it one of the closest electoral college vote tallies in history). If Clinton only won one of those states, she would be president.
Now you can see why Donald Trump's avenue to the White House is so thin. He has very little room for error. If he loses in just one of the states that is considered either likely for him or leaning toward him, he may have to kiss his hopes goodbye, unless he steals a large state that is considered either likely for Clinton or leaning toward Clinton.
Bear with me here. For example, if Trump happens to lose in Colorado, but comes back to win in Virginia, he would still be the winner. There are multiple permutations where Trump could come out on top. However, as I said earlier, I have been focusing on the most likely paths according to the polls. And right now, according to polling averages, the simplest way for Donald Trump to win is by sweeping the states that he is currently likely to win and states that are leaning towards him and winning the two tossup states. The second "easiest" path to becoming president is by winning all that he is currently likely to win and all that are leaning toward him, coming out the victor in Florida, and stealing just one of the states that are currently leaning toward Clinton's camp.
The most intriguing possible outcome would have to be where Trump wins all that he is currently likely to win and all that are leaning toward him, garners Florida, and wins New Hampshire instead of Colorado. That would give him exactly 270 electoral votes, the first time ever that a candidate would hit that number on the dot to win.
I understand that this exercise may have been incredibly confusing, but the biggest point is this: Trump can do this. He just needs to have error- and gaffe-free debates and stick to his primary message of security and the economy. Monday night's debate should be the most watched political event in history, so the pressure is on.
I hope you enjoyed this convoluted post, and if you have anything to say about the Race To 270, please comment! I will be here on Monday to give my thoughts on the debate. Be sure to get out your popcorn and Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream, because it's going to be a wild ride.
Ben: Good article. I too am intrigued by politics. But, I'm afraid Donald Trump won't get as close as you predict. I'm by no means a Hillary fan, but I know that Trump is very unqualified, very green on foreign policy, very loose with his mouth, and just not a good choice. He will do well to garner close to 200 electoral votes due to him losing in states typically red like my home state of Arizona. He just doesn't get it that he can't put down an entire race, religion or sect of voters and expect them to still vote for him. The fact that he has even gotten this far has startled him as well as most of the nation. It just shows that voters are not educated in the issues and the candidates. He would be a terrible President, and I think most of the country will see that by the time the election takes place. The debates will show when he is asked for specifics, he just changes the subject, and can't respond because he doesn't really have any policies to share with us. His "secret" plan to eliminate ISIS is an example that he states he will not share because he doesn't want the enemy to know. He is a joke really, and should go back to reality TV where he belongs. Politics like his airline, his steaks, his water, his USFL football team, his casinos, his fake university are all examples that if you waste your vote on him because you think he is a good businessman... you are highly mistaken. DONALD: YOU'RE FIRED as a Presidential candidate!
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