The Return of the Political Chessboard

As leaves change to auburn, the political state of our nation and world stays immobile in its smoldering wreckage. The smoke billows across the globe, with a munchkin threatening nuclear war, racial tensions on the rise, and an ever-changing date for the end of the world...

But out of this haze, like a phoenix, emerges Ben Anderson's Political Chessboard. After a year away from this project, I am finally ready to return to the "dismal game". This calls for a reintroduction to the values and vision of the Chessboard. For a recap, please follow the following link:
https://andersonpoliticalchessboard.blogspot.com/2016/08/an-introduction-to-chessboard.html

Over the past year, my interest in politics has not waned. However, other than time constraints, what has mostly kept me away from this blog is utter frustration with the world as a whole. Overexposure to politics, I have found, can poison the mind and leave one in a floundering state of being.

This, to a certain extent, happened to me as the zaniness of 2016 came to a close. My hope took a direct blow as 2017 manifested almost equal chaos. As the reality of a likely irrevocably divided nation hit, my writing spirit drowned during the deluge.

However, in the present, that writing spirit feels resuscitated after I found a simple, yet rich and powerful verse of Scripture.

Romans 12:12 - Rejoice in hope, be patient in tribulation, be constant in prayer. 

The answer is that simple. With an invigorated goal of keeping Jesus Christ in mind during my analysis, I'm ready to jump back into the fray.

As I make my return, I urge you to keep the following in mind. The following will be crucial to ruminate upon while observing the Political Chessboard.

1) Don't believe everything you see, on the internet or on any type of media. This may seem cliché, but it's more true than it's ever been. You can't trust any organization anymore, no matter their "prestige". Everyone and everything has its own agenda, no matter how innocuous they may seem. Understand that any photo can be photoshopped and that every story can be fabricated. Also, don't think that using a fact checker website will solve this problem. Who is fact-checking the fact-checkers? Once again, every organization has an agenda, even if their intentions seem good and legitimate. You need to do the fact checking yourself, because fake news is a real thing. The truth is usually not in the headlines, but somewhere closer to the middle.

2) Think for yourself. First, diversify yourself in where you get your news. Getting all of your news and opinions from NBC or CNN doesn't help you. Nor does getting all your news and opinions from Fox News and Breitbart. Understand differing opinions, respect the people who hold them (no matter how uninformed the opinion may be), and only then should you form your own opinion. Even after you've formed your opinion, continue to roll that opinion through your head over and over, challenging it and making your opinion as accurate and foolproof as possible.

If you've followed those two steps, then you're on your way toward being able to process events in a respectful and respectable fashion. In many areas (not all, but many), there is room for compromise in opinions. One key way in attempting to unify this nation, where we actually can Make America Great Again, is by looking in the mirror and examining if we're following those two steps properly. After the events in Charlottesville, the National Anthem uproar in the NFL, and other head-spinning controversies, I hope that we all look deeper into each issue and become better Americans through personal reflection.

Since the last blog post, one of my sources of inspiration for my political ideology, Bill O'Reilly, was unceremoniously kicked off the air. However, I will still cling to his principle tenet of looking at both sides of the aisle with impartiality and not becoming a sheep for either party.

Bear with me during this journey. I am a freshman student at WVU Tech, and content may occasionally become sporadic. However, the commitment is real, and the Chessboard will not be thrown in the closet any time soon.

Enjoy the game.

The world of politics never ceases to turn...

Trump Wins 2nd Presidential Debate By Forcefully Changing Narrative

The 2nd Presidential Debate had affects on all of the senses. During the 90 minutes, we felt the tension between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. We smelled the stench of nasty attacks. We tasted no humility from either side. We heard talk about sexual assault and acid-washed servers.

But possibly most interesting, we saw a fly land on Hillary Clinton's eyebrow.

The fly brought a small bit of humor to the otherwise utterly caustic debate. But as I watched the debate, the fly stuck to my mind. In my twisted mind (a mind tainted by years of watching politics), I saw the fly as a symbol.

Just as the fly took our minds off of the mud-slinging (it wasn't really mud-slinging, as it was actually napalm-throwing) on the stage, Donald Trump was able to, at least for the majority of the debate, take our minds off of the hot microphone scandal that has rocked his campaign.

Trump Goes All Out In Attacks On Hillary's Emails

I don't think that Trump could have deflected questions about the video scandal any better. What would have usually hurt him, his penchant for not answering questions directly, worked to his favor on Sunday. Each time he addressed the hot mic moment, he successfully weaved in an attack on Hillary. With his usual bluster, he forcefully changed the debate's narrative to an indictment of Hillary Clinton.

He did go on to vigorously throw punches at Bill Clinton, which, as I put forth in my previous article, I think is a mistake. But he didn't dwell on the former President's improprieties. He went on to a much better strategy, going hard after Hillary Clinton on the WikiLeaks and email controversies.

Trump was roundly criticized for not spending enough time pounding the email issue in the first debate. He certainly made up for lost time on Sunday. The Trumpster, for the first time in these head-to-head debates, put Clinton on the defensive.

Possibly the best moment for Trump during the debate came after Martha Raddatz asked Clinton about her speeches to Wall Street executives. When addressing her comment about having a private position and a public position, Clinton gave a convoluted answer about how President Abraham Lincoln was the first to have different public and private positions on issues, and how it supposedly shows leadership. Trump gave a brilliant response:

"She lied, and now she’s blaming the lie on the late great Abraham Lincoln. Honest Abe never lied. That’s the big difference between Abraham Lincoln and you.”

That moment made Clinton look foolish and desperate. It was just one of many moments where Trump used his wit to hurt Clinton. On his sharp jabs and witty comebacks alone, Trump likely, and somewhat amazingly, won this debate.

Duct Tape Likely Can't Save USS Trump, But Stranger Things Have Happened

Trump's debate "win" doesn't mean that the video issue is going to go away. On the contrary, the Trump campaign is still in a mess. The words that Trump used in that video will continue to stick in voters' minds, and it may be impossible for Trump to win back the support he has lost.

Also, although I believe Trump won the debate, he did have some rough moments. He still lacks substance on key issues, and he made some wild, barely competent comments about Syria and Iraq that once again raise questions about his foreign policy ideas.

However, The Donald's campaign underwent some blood coagulation tonight. It may at least prevent further un-endorsements from fellow Republicans and help some down-ballot conservatives.

I am sticking to my belief, though, that Donald Trump can not win this election. But I will at least admit that stranger things have happened, and I may be wrong. It is true that Mr. Trump has surprised me before. After all, he did write the book The Art of the Comeback.

We have almost a full month's worth of madness left to endure. Let's hunker down and see what may come next during this wild election season.

The Final Blow: Analysis And Ramifications Of Donald Trump's Lewd Video

On Friday, a monumental piece of news broke, and it was supposed to send the 2016 election into more of a frenzy than ever before. WikiLeaks released transcripts of many of Hillary Clinton's speeches to Wall Street executives. They put Clinton's ambivalence with her ideas in the spotlight, showing her flip-flops on trade and open borders. This could have been viewed as a gift for the Trump campaign.

But just before WikiLeaks released the documents, Clinton's camp received possibly the largest present in political history: a video that essentially has undone Donald Trump's campaign. The video, which gives audio of Donald Trump having a sexually aggressive, utterly disgusting conversation with former Access Hollywood host Billy Bush, was originally filmed in 2005. It has created a ripple effect, causing many prominent Republicans to either rescind their endorsement of Trump or call on him to drop out of the race.

There's no doubt that the USS Trump is sinking. How did Republicans not see the iceberg coming? Can Mike Pence take over as captain? How many Republicans up for re-election can huddle in the weak lifeboats trying to get to shore?

The Republican Party Should Have Seen This Coming

It has always been an open secret about Trump's cavalier attitude toward women. As a prominent New York socialite, Trump has reportedly bragged about his sexual escapades and adultery for years. Many may remember Trump's scandal in the 1990s when he was cheating on his wife, Ivana Trump, with Marla Maples.

In other words, if you thought that Trump was flawless saint sent from above before yesterday, you have been hiding under a rock. The thing that makes the video stand out is that it is the first time we have auditory proof of his complete raunchiness.

I wonder if this is what Ted Cruz meant when he talked about Trump's "New York values" during the primary season. By no means am I saying that New Yorkers lack moral character. I am saying that this type of talk and behavior is common among the rich and famous in New York City. This is not conjecture, it's fact. This is how tabloid papers stay in business.

When the Republican Party nominated Donald Trump, they should have known they were going to have to contend with Trump's Hollywood-flavored scandals. Republican primary voters, however, put their concerns about Trump's behavior to the side because of their passionate want for an upheaval in Washington. That passion blinded many from supporting much safer, more qualified candidates.

Trump and his campaign showed that they knew this was a serious situation when he issued his first apology of the campaign (possibly in his lifetime) in response. Trump was clearly reading a teleprompter during his on-camera response, and it didn't look particularly smooth.  The worst part about Trump's apology was his mentioning of Bill Clinton's scandals:

"I’ve said some foolish things, but there is a big difference between words and actions. Bill Clinton has actually abused women and Hillary has bullied, attacked, shamed and intimidated his victims. We will discuss this more in the coming days."

Yes, even many Democrats admit that Bill Clinton committed these acts. But it sounds like Donald Trump is trying to justify his sins by another man's sins. This proves that Trump still doesn't get why so many people do not like him. Why does there always have to be blaming and criticizing? It would have done Trump a lot of good just to focus on himself, delving further into how foolish he was and that he will never engage in such vulgar talk again, in public or in private venues.

However, I am not going to sit here and criticize you if you are going to continue to support Trump. I respect the arguments of those who say we have a binary choice in this election. Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, had this to say:

"This is far from an ideal situation, but it is the reality in which we find ourselves and as difficult as it is, I refuse to find sanctuary on the sidelines and allow the country and culture to deteriorate even further by continuing the policies of the last 8 years."

I completely understand and respect that logic. But the Political Chessboard is here to primarily provide political insight. And in this case, the presidential election is over if Donald Trump is at the top of the Republican ticket on November 8th.

The Murky Future For Republicans

About two dozen Republicans in Congress have issued statements saying that Trump should get out of the race and let Mike Pence take the top of the ticket. However, this is likely a pipe dream. We must understand how late it is in the process. With exactly a month to go before the polls close on Election Day, ballots have already been printed and some states have started early voting. Whether Republicans like it or not, they are stuck Donald Trump.

This doesn't mean that Republicans up for re-election aren't going to swim as far away from the drowning Trumpster as possible. Several vulnerable conservatives are already running for the hills.

Tight Senate races might be affected by Trump's improprieties. Senate races in Missouri, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Florida were starting to trend to the right, but the now infamous video may hurt Republican candidates.

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, who is locked in an uber-tight race against Gov. Maggie Hassan,  had the most intriguing dilemma. When recently asked if Trump was a role model for children, Ayotte answered in the affirmative. She has tried to walk that back in recent days, and after the Trump video came out yesterday, Ayotte decided to withdraw her support. She also says she will write in Mike Pence's name as her presidential choice. Ayotte was up in the polls about 1-2 points going into this week, but it remains to be seen how this madness affects her numbers.

In Florida, Rep. Patrick Murphy wrote an op-ed on The Hill calling on Sen. Marco Rubio to either take back his support of Trump or withdraw from his Senate re-election bid. This is another Senate race that could be affected by Trump's scandal.

The Road Ahead

As was said earlier, the Political Chessboard feels that the 2016 Presidential Race is essentially over. I just don't see how Trump can do anything to remedy his problems, whether it be in the debate on Sunday or in an interview. The damage to his candidacy has been done.

Control of the U.S. Senate now may hinge on how far Trump falls. Democrats could now be considered favored to win the Upper Chamber.

The point now is how sad this election truly is. Millions of voters now see this election as a battle between a sexist pig and a pathological liar, and millions more will simply stay home during this cycle. Regardless of the outcome on November 8th, it is clear that America as a whole has lost this election, with fractures that will be felt for years to come.

Hell, Fire, And Brimstone At First Presidential Debate: Thoughts And Analysis

After the two contestants stepped out of the ring, blood and gore covered the floor. Fire raged from one end of the room to the other. Brimstone rained down from the heavens. And all the while, a man named Lester Holt sat in the middle of the disaster zone, praying for the night to end.

Ok, maybe it wasn't quite that ugly. But there is no doubt that during Monday's 1st Presidential Debate, Lester Holt was in the midst of a war zone. The political version of the Battle of the Bulge played out, with over 80 million pairs of eyes across the nation glued to the action.

However, no WMDs were dropped by either candidate. The most-used weapons on Monday were verbal haymakers, some landing, some not. But the biggest story of the night was the weapon that Donald Trump didn't use very often: the cyber attack.

Trump Turns Down Opportunities For Email Attacks

The mainstream media was flabbergasted when Trump let the ultimate opportunity for an attack on Hillary Clinton go when both candidates were asked about cybersecurity. It is unlike Trump to miss such a chance to go on the offensive against the former Sec. of State and her email problems, but he decided to focus on the question rather than go for blood at that moment. He had talked about Hillary's email scandal earlier in the debate.

One observation: The media has criticized Trump all year for his constant onslaught of attacks on a variety of public figures. Isn't it humorous that the media is now blasting the Trumpster for not going on the offensive and attacking Mrs. Clinton? Whether the American people can see through the media's hypocrisy remains to be seen.

I disagree with the notion that Trump hurt his case by not going after Clinton more often about the email controversy. It was a 90 minute debate. If Trump had constantly went after Clinton's jugular over the issue, he would have been painted as a 'one-issue candidate' trying to kill the debate clock. You see, no matter how he handled his attacks on the email controversy, he was going to be criticized. I contend that Trump would rather have been criticized for not spending enough time on the email saga rather than spending too much time on it.

Also, are we really all going to vote for someone because of how hard the candidate attacks their opponent? I don't think so. I, for one, am going to support the candidate that has policies and values that most align with my thinking. I hope that you do the same.

Trump Puts Himself In A Corner

There is no question that Donald Trump became very defensive during the debate, especially regarding his tax returns, birtherism, and past comments about climate change and the Iraq War. Like her or not, Hillary Clinton came prepared in terms of how to combat Trump on those issues.

For climate change, it is clear that in 2012, he tweeted that he believes that climate change is a myth made pervasive by the Chinese. In 2002, when asked by Howard Stern if he supports the Iraq War, he replied, "I guess so."

When the media started pressing him on these issues as the legitimacy of his campaign rose, Trump should have given himself two options for each: Either say he was wrong when he made the quotes, or stick to his guns and say his opinions haven't changed. 

Instead, Donald Trump has tried to deny he ever said such things. Trump has continued to dig himself into a hole, giving Clinton plenty of ammunition. Thinking as a political strategist, I would advise Hillary Clinton to continue pushing the narrative that Trump has been lying about his past positions. This would take the focus off of Hillary's trustworthiness issues and put the spotlight on the fibs Trump has entangled himself in.

Clinton's Smugness Continues To Hurt Her

The definition of smugness is "contentedly confident of one's ability, superiority, or correctness." If that wasn't what Hillary Clinton came off as on Monday night, I don't know what smugness is.

Trump had a brilliant parry that resonated when he said she was trying to act "holier than thou." Clinton already has an image problem, and her condescending tone of voice, constant sarcasm, and arrogant-looking sneers didn't help things.

Although Clinton takes him as a joke, it has been proven o'er and o'er that Donald Trump is leading a movement in the United States of voters that want change in Washington. If she doesn't get that through her head soon, she may just lose this election. She recently said that she doesn't understand why she isn't up 50 percentage points on Trump. Her lack of understanding of why people don't like her may end up crippling her campaign in the end.

Conclusion

I think there were jabs from both sides that landed and quotes that resonated. Trump did well in his attacks on Hillary's flip flops on TPP, his explanation of the benefits of stop-and-frisk, and his opening talking points on job creation. Clinton did well in keeping Trump on the defensive, painting him as unfit to be president, and enunciating her ideas for the future. I thought Trump won the first 45 minutes, while Clinton won the second half.

That also correlates with the fact that Lester Holt let Trump and Clinton debate back and forth in the first 45 minutes, while Holt essentially tried to help Hillary take Trump to trial in the 2nd half. Holt had one question on the email scandal, but he had no interest in asking Hillary tough questions beyond that one question.

I can't predict how this will affect the race long term. I think that many people understand that there were many issues that went untouched. I liked the analogy that Fox News commentator Greg Gutfeld used, saying that Trump treated the first debate like the first day of a three day golf tournament. No holes-in-one, no albatrosses, but several pars, setting himself up for a potentially big showing in the final two debates.

One thing is certain: This race is still tight, and it will be until the end. And it's about to get uglier than ever.

The Electoral Puzzle: Trump's Path To Victory Outlined

Ever since I last updated this blog (far too long ago), the world of politics has been bombarded with developments. Donald Trump went 'south of the border' to meet with the Mexican president, Hillary Clinton passed out trying to get into a van, and the polls have gotten unbearably tight. With the first presidential debate on Monday, I thought it would be good to give some analysis on the current state of the race, mainly in terms of the Electoral College.

When we hear general election polls from various outlets, we can become confused by the volatility of the numbers. For example, on Thursday, NBC News, partnered with Wall Street Journal, produced a poll that had Clinton up 6 points nationally, a much larger lead for Hillary than most recent polls have indicated. A few hours after that poll was released, however, Reuters, partnered with Ipsos, put out a poll showing Trump with the lead by 2 points.

The problem, however, is with the notion that broad, nationwide general election polls truly matter. Although nationwide presidential polls can give a snapshot of the overall picture in a race, they do not give an accurate assessment of who will actually win.

That is where polls of individual states become so critical when evaluating the state of a presidential race. I always hearken back to the fact that our Founding Fathers instituted the Electoral College system, and as you hopefully know, the candidate that reaches 270 electoral votes will be the victor.

In this election, we must admit that Donald Trump's path to 270 is very narrow. However, his lane to the White House is visible, and I will now proceed to outline how a Trump win is possible. First, the following states are those that are locks for either Trump or Clinton.

Safe States

Trump's Locks: Alaska (3), Idaho (4), Montana (3), Wyoming (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Kansas (6), Oklahoma (7), Texas (38), Missouri (10), Arkansas (6), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Alabama (9), Tennessee (11), Kentucky (8), Indiana (11), West Virginia (5), South Carolina (9), Four Of Nebraska's Five

Hillary's Locks: Hawaii (4), Washington (12), Oregon (7), California (55), Minnesota (10), Illinois (20), Washington D.C. (3), Maryland (10), Delaware (3), New Jersey (14), Connecticut (7), Rhode Island (4), Massachusetts (11), Vermont (3), One Of Maine's Four

In safe states, Trump sweeps the South, as expected. The Midwest looks like solid Trump territory as well, as former bellwether state Missouri has turned red over the past decade.

For Democrats, the Pacific Coast will be very blue as usual. As will the liberal bastion of the Northeast. Hillary can also stake claim in Minnesota and Illinois easily.

You may be confused by the odd allocations of delegates from Nebraska and Maine. Nebraska and Maine dole out their electoral votes differently than the rest of the nation. Instead of the "all-or-none" way that most states use, Nebraska and Maine give two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner, and then one each to the popular vote winner in each congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in Nebraska) in their state. In the Cornhusker State, Trump will easily grab the popular vote and 2 of the 3 congressional districts. Over in the Pine Tree State, Clinton should garner one electoral vote from a congressional district for sure. As we will see later, the remaining electoral votes, 1 from Nebraska and 3 from Maine, could be key in the outcome of the race.

So, from the beginning, we can lock up 193 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 157 for Donald Trump. Now, things start getting fuzzy. Let's look at states that are likely in one candidate's corner, but could switch to the other side depending on who grabs momentum going into the final full month of campaigning.

Likely States

Likely Trump: Utah (6), Iowa (6), One Of Nebraska's Five, One Of Maine's Four

Likely Clinton: New Mexico (5)

There have been some odd local polls coming out of Utah that have shown the likes of Evan McMullin and Gary Johnson near the lead. While I do believe that both McMullin and Johnson will have their best performance in the nation in this state, I think they're still about 8 to 10 points off the lead. If Clinton wins, it would have nothing to do with her popularity in Utah, which is very low. It would solely stem from a conservative vote that would split between Trump, McMullin, and Johnson. Until more reliable data shows otherwise, Trump is likely to take Utah.

Iowa is the first state that we come across that could see severe swings over the next month. According to the majority of polls over the past month, Trump has built a lead near 6 points. It has been consistently in that range, and that's why we can put the Hawkeye State in the likely corner for The Donald. However, this is a state that could swing rapidly if Trump shoots himself in the foot often during the debates and throughout October. 

Many were shocked when Barack Obama took Nebraska's 2nd congressional district in 2008. Although there is a strong liberal faction in this area, Trump fever is real in Nebraska, so we'll say it's likely Trump.

Although one electoral vote seems small, it could be critical with as tight as this election may be. That's why Donald Trump is thrilled with his polling performance in Maine's 2nd congressional district, opening up an 11 point lead according to the latest poll.

There's only one reason why I put New Mexico in the Likely section instead of the Safe section for Clinton. Reuters recently came out with a poll showing Trump with a very small lead, mainly due to former NM Gov. Gary Johnson stealing some of Hillary Clinton's support. This has been the only poll showing Trump leading, making it look like a fluke. However, New Mexico does have a conservative faction that has given us some surprises over the years, like when George W. Bush won in 2004. But for now, this is probably in Clinton's corner.

Adding the Safe States to the Likely States, Clinton would have 197 electoral votes to Trump's 171. We're getting closer to the nitty-gritty. Let's look at the states that lean slightly to one candidate's corner.

The Leaners

Leaning Trump: Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18)

Learning Clinton: Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13), New Hampshire (4), Two Of Maine's Four

This is where things get wild. It would be best to start in the Wild, Wild West with Nevada. As a Politico headline eloquently put it this week, Nevada is the state that is giving the Democrats the most heartburn this season. Trump's message seems to have made a resonating dent in liberals' hold on the Silver State. A Fox News poll this week had Trump up 4 points. Trump's recent surge here may correlate with his small but noticeable uptick in Hispanic support.

While Nevada's closeness has given Democrats fits, Arizona's tight polls have given the left reason for joy. A usually red state, Arizona's Latino population has revolted against Trump. The only truly reliable recent poll was an NBC/WSJ/Marist poll showing Trump up a measly point, well within the margin of error. While Trump should pull this out, this one may go either way, and if Clinton wins here, Trump's dreams of the White House will evaporate in the desert sun.

Georgia has been showing more liberal tendencies recently, and Democrats are hoping that a large African-American turnout will push Clinton to a massive upset. Polling shows Trump up anywhere from 3 points to 6. If Clinton is having a big night nationwide, Georgia could very well be in play, but it would take a lot of momentum.

North Carolina is a state on fire right now. With the protests/riots in Charlotte combined with the bathroom law controversy (putting Gov. Pat McCrory's job in jeopardy), nobody really knows what might happen here. Like in Georgia, Democrats are urging the African-American community to vote en masse. An Obama state in 2008 but a Romney state in 2012, NC likely has a Trump tilt, but like Georgia, if Clinton is having a big night, the Tar Heel State could fall to the Democrats.

Ohio, known as the ultimate bellwether state since it has essentially been the main presidential election decider in the majority of U.S. political history, looks more and more like Trump country, at least according to recent polling. Since Ohio is full of cities looking for a manufacturing revitalization, Trump's harping on trade has affected Buckeye State voters. It is a state that is very evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, but the white working-class voters may push Trump over the top here.

Wisconsin and Michigan both have similar makeups, and there has been very limited polling in these states. A few local polls have shown Clinton up anywhere between 2 to 7 points in the Badger State, while Michigan may give Clinton an even larger lead. It is not an insurmountable deficit by any means for Trump. He would need to get a boost from the debates and keep pushing his economic message.

If you split Pennsylvania in half, you would see two very dissimilar areas. The rural and industrial parts of Western Pennsylvania give a picture of voters that are fed up with the government and want Trump to be elected to shake things up. On the other hand, the uber-liberal Philadelphia region shows many residents that would rather die than vote for Trump. It simply depends on which side shows up in larger numbers. Polls in the past month have shown a small shift in Clinton's direction, but this will depend on turnout.

Virginia has shown a left turn in the past few cycles. Combining the ultra-blue fortress in Northern Virginia and having Sen. Tim Kaine on the ticket for Democrats, Virginia has felt like Clinton territory all year. But polling has underestimated the conservative coal and farming country in the southern part of the state recently. In 2012, Ed Gillespie performed far better than the polling average in his fight against Sen. Mark Warner. Had the polls not been so far off, the RNC would have spent more money on Gillespie, potentially pushing him to the victory. Trump has continually been spending time in the state, and for good reason.

New Hampshire and Maine have that famous independent streak, and Donald Trump has talked extensively about how he would work to fix the raging drug problem there. Polls this month have shown a rapid tightening up here, with Clinton clinging to slight leads.

Adding the Safe States, the Likely States, and the Leaning States together, Hillary Clinton would have 263 electoral votes, while Trump would hold only 237. But we are missing two critical states that could very well decide the election.

The Tossups

Purple States: Florida (29), Colorado (9)

As usual, Florida is as hotly contested as one could possibly imagine. According to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Trump is ahead by about one-tenth of a percent. I'm not saying we're about to see Bush vs Gore Part 2 in the Sunshine State, but expect the unexpected here.

Colorado has unexpectedly come right into play during September. An Emerson poll shocked everyone, showing Trump with a 4 point advantage. More proof that things are tight emerged when a Quinnipiac poll had Trump and Clinton knotted up in a tie this week. Gary Johnson has sucked some support from Hillary Clinton, turning this into a pickup opportunity for the Trumpster.

Conclusion

Let's do some math (well, I'll do the math for you, I won't put you through these calculations). Let's say that Trump wins every state that is considered safe for him, likely for him, and leaning his way. Also, let's say Clinton does the same for her states that I categorized as safe, likely, and leaning for her. That would mean that the Clinton/Kaine ticket would have 263 electoral votes, 7 shy of the amount needed to win the presidency. Trump/Pence would have 237.

The presidency would hang in the balance by the way the two tossup states would go. In order to come out over 270, Trump would have to squeak out victories in both, ending up at 275 electoral votes, compared to Clinton's 263 (making it one of the closest electoral college vote tallies in history). If Clinton only won one of those states, she would be president.

Now you can see why Donald Trump's avenue to the White House is so thin. He has very little room for error. If he loses in just one of the states that is considered either likely for him or leaning toward him, he may have to kiss his hopes goodbye, unless he steals a large state that is considered either likely for Clinton or leaning toward Clinton.

Bear with me here. For example, if Trump happens to lose in Colorado, but comes back to win in Virginia, he would still be the winner. There are multiple permutations where Trump could come out on top. However, as I said earlier, I have been focusing on the most likely paths according to the polls. And right now, according to polling averages, the simplest way for Donald Trump to win is by sweeping the states that he is currently likely to win and states that are leaning towards him and winning the two tossup states. The second "easiest" path to becoming president is by winning all that he is currently likely to win and all that are leaning toward him, coming out the victor in Florida, and stealing just one of the states that are currently leaning toward Clinton's camp.

The most intriguing possible outcome would have to be where Trump wins all that he is currently likely to win and all that are leaning toward him, garners Florida, and wins New Hampshire instead of Colorado. That would give him exactly 270 electoral votes, the first time ever that a candidate would hit that number on the dot to win.

I understand that this exercise may have been incredibly confusing, but the biggest point is this: Trump can do this. He just needs to have error- and gaffe-free debates and stick to his primary message of security and the economy. Monday night's debate should be the most watched political event in history, so the pressure is on.

I hope you enjoyed this convoluted post, and if you have anything to say about the Race To 270, please comment! I will be here on Monday to give my thoughts on the debate. Be sure to get out your popcorn and Ben & Jerry's Ice Cream, because it's going to be a wild ride.

An Introduction to the Chessboard

Chess is a maddeningly frustrating game for most. One might pick up the sport for a short period of time to learn the basics, but as the player delves deeper into the intricacies of the game, he or she likely will become discouraged. Lost in the various forms of the game and the bewildering terminology, a newbie is likely to toss the game aside after a few lessons.

In many ways, politics is comparable to the strategy game played on a chessboard. It is highly competitive, it involves ingenious tactics, and it is an art form. But, like chess, politics can be overwhelmingly difficult to follow, as well as disheartening. Despite this fact, we must fall back upon this famous Italian proverb:

"At the end of the game, the pawn and the king go back into the same box."

This quote can also apply to politics. Even though we may become discouraged by the current state of our political system, we must continue to honor our responsibility to this nation by following politics. U.S. citizens must avidly research current affairs, study the ideas of prominent politicians, and exercise our rights to vote and let our voices be heard. Our founding fathers firmly believed we could handle the responsibilities given to us in this democratic republic, so we must fulfill our civic duties.

Now, at this point, I'm sure you're wondering why this 17-year-old kid is lecturing you about staying in the loop when it comes to politics. As Admiral James Stockdale famously said in the 1992 Vice Presidential Debate, "Who am I? Why am I here?" Well, as just proven by my quoting of the good admiral, I'm a bona fide political nerd. As a homeschooler since the 2nd grade, I've had ample time to follow my own passions, and politics has been a priority. However, I'm just a kid from the backwoods of West Virginia, where the Greenbrier River and moonshine flow. I'm not trying to come across as 'holier than thou'. I'm as plain as the nose on your face (unless you have Lyndon B. Johnson's nose, as he is known for having the largest schnoz in presidential history).

I recently found inspiration from a story about a 12-year-old political operative named Weston Imer. The youngster is running Donald Trump's campaign office in Jefferson County, Colorado, a critical county in Trump's gameplan. When interviewed, Imer eloquently demanded of others, "Get involved. That's what I'm going to say. Get involved. Kids need to be educated." And he couldn't be more right.

I received my first taste of politics when my grandparents, longtime members of the Greenbrier County Republican Club, took me to a George W. Bush re-election rally in Beckley, West Virginia in 2004. I vividly remember the shouts of "Four more years!" ringing from the rafters. Although I didn't fully grasp what was going on, nor what was at stake, I knew that I was attending an important event.

My first real interest in news and politics, however, came at the end of 'Dubya's residency in the White House. You see, my parents have always been consistent viewers of NBC Nightly News, and I essentially  grew up with Brian Williams. I thought he was a pretty cool guy. This, of course, was before I truly understood liberal media bias, and before we all found out that Williams is a pathological liar. Anyhow, in early September of 2008, Williams was reporting on the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Amused by these humorous (at least, humorous to me) names of financial services companies, I had the urge to dig a little deeper. This seems to be the area that I would pinpoint as the time when the spark was lit. I had to know more every day about the news, and subsequently, politics. I felt compassion for those affected by what happened to Fannie & Freddie, Lehman Brothers, Wachovia, etc., and I wanted to learn more so that one day, I could make a difference.

In 2010, when my family got DirecTV, I gained access to the gold standard of information: the Fox News Channel. Personalities like Shepard Smith, Neil Cavuto, and Megyn Kelly became daily fixtures in the Anderson household. However, there was no personality that I respected and watched more than Mr. No Spin himself, Bill O'Reilly. From The O'Reilly Factor, a show that I watch almost religiously to this day, I took the valuable lesson of looking at both sides of the aisle with impartiality and not becoming a sheep for either party.

I am in Mike Pence's corner when he says that he is “a Christian, a conservative and a Republican, in that order.” As a born-again Christian, I base my thoughts and opinions on the Word of God. As a conservative, I have a limited government perspective that nearly mirrors Mike Huckabee's and Ted Cruz's. And as a Republican, I will try to support the party because it represents ideals that need to come back to the top of American politics.

I will not, however, blindly defend every member of the Republican Party. I will be openly critical of characters like Donald Trump (although I will support him in this election), Sean Hannity, Ann Coulter, Sarah Palin, and a litany of others for a variety of reasons.

This blog will hold true to its political foundation. I respect the minds of Dr. Larry Sabato, Scott Rasmussen, and Charles Krauthammer, as they understand the game of politics better than any others. I like one quote by Krauthammer in particular, when talking about elections, saying, "Every two years the American politics industry fills the airwaves with the most virulent, scurrilous, wall-to-wall character assassination of nearly every political practitioner in the country - and then declares itself puzzled that America has lost trust in its politicians."

That is the very reason why this blog is here today. There is a way to fix the world of politics, and it includes a blend of the ideals of John Kasich and Calvin Coolidge (an odd pairing, I know). In the future, I will explain what I mean in full.

Also, I will analyze news stories that don't directly affect politics, but do have key lessons in them. For example, I plan on making one of my first pieces an analysis of the controversy caused by San Francisco 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick, and his sitting during The Star Spangled Banner.

For now, however, I have rambled enough. I'm very eager to get started, make connections with the readers, and hopefully make a difference through this blog. In closing, I will leave you with the reminder that I will include at the end of every article:

The world of politics never ceases to turn...